The Lawyer

Freedom Lawyers of America

A site that will chronical the dark side of the news to show what happens when freedom is dying and to sell his books SHELLY WAXMAN'S BOOKS. We also foster and certify the proper use of independent contractors. http:independentcontractor.info CHECK OUR WEBSITE http://thelawyer.info WHERE YOU CAN ALSO ACCESS OUR FREEDOM LAWYERS YAHOO GROUP

Wednesday, August 20, 2003

 

Misc.

Victory Act would give more powers to law enforcement

ABC News
   "As Attorney General John Ashcroft barnstorms the country to
   bolster support for the controversial USA Patriot Act, a new bill
   is quietly circulating on Capitol Hill to give even greater powers
   to law enforcement -- in the name of fighting drug trafficking."
   (8/20/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/807361526.html

 Tampa police scrap face-recognition system

   "Tampa police have scrapped their controversial security camera
   system that scanned city streets for criminals, citing its failure
   over two years to recognize anyone wanted by authorities."
   (8/20/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/743319494.html

 "Frustrated by an inflexible, bureaucratic health system that
   has heaped more patients with more complex problems on fewer
   physicians, 45.7 per cent of doctors who responded to a CMA
   [Canadian Medical Association] survey said they're burned out
   by the profession." (8/20/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/848004470.html


Chinese government planning "super ID card"

International Herald Tribune
   "[S]tarting next year they [Chinese citizens] will face something
   new and breathtaking in scale, an electronic card that will store
   vital information for all 960 million eligible citizens on chips
   that authorities anywhere can access." Officials claim the move is
   to thwart ID counterfeiting, but civil libertarians are skeptical.
   (8/20/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/751410106.html

Sheldon (Shelly) Waxman, Writer/Lawyer
"The Black Messiah Murders," Sam Cohen #1
"Piranhas On the Loose," Sam Cohen #2
"In the Teeth of the Wind,"
"All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting"
PURCHASE AT MY WEBSITE: http://thelawyer.info/ OR Call Iuniverse toll free 1-877-823-9235 

Tuesday, August 19, 2003

 

Misc.

Fed demands for businesses' customer information on the rise
----------
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
   "Private businesses such as phone companies, banks and
   retail stores are facing more requests from law
   enforcement agencies for information about their
   customers .... Subpoenas and court orders ... stemming
   from new government powers to search for terrorists,
   have alarmed civil rights groups and privacy advocates,
   who say that the government is secretly snooping on
   innocent citizens." (8/17/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/974829693.html

Massachusetts lawyers hold state courts hostage for back pay
----------
Boston Globe
   "As dozens of lawyers for poor defendants disrupted courts
   throughout Suffolk County yesterday by refusing to
   accept new clients until they're paid for past work,
   state lawmakers hastily approved $15.4 million in back
   payments to the court-appointed attorneys." (8/19/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/896525448.html


 

The Latest On Schiff

SCHIFF FIGHTS I.R.S. RESTRICTIONS
Can a man be held in contempt of court and jailed for selling copies of
public records?
LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/16/national/16TAX.html

Tax Protester Faces Justice Dept.
By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON
LAS VEGAS, Aug. 15 - Can a man be held in contempt of court and jailed for
selling copies of public records?

Irwin Schiff, the nation's best-known proponent of the idea that people are
not required to pay income taxes, has put that provocative question to
Lloyd D. George, a federal district judge who held a hearing here on
Thursday on a Justice Department request that Mr. Schiff be put behind bars
for civil contempt.

On June 16, Judge George issued an injunction ordering the 75-year-old Mr.
Schiff, who has twice gone to prison for tax offenses, to stop promoting
his "zero tax return," which he says allows anyone to legally list no
income and so pay no taxes. At least 5,100 such returns have been filed in
recent years, the Internal Revenue Service says, costing the government $51
million in taxes and tying up law enforcement resources needed to pursue
the filers.

Judge George also ordered Mr. Schiff to stop selling his $38 book, "The
Federal Mafia: How the Federal Government Illegally Imposes and Unlawfully
Collects Federal Income Taxes." Judge George found the book to be false
commercial speech that incites people to evade taxes, although, contrary to
Mr. Schiff's assertion that the book had now been banned, the court did not
prohibit its sale by people unconnected to him.

Five days later Mr. Schiff certified to the court that he was obeying the
injunction, which also required him to post it prominently on his Web site.

But the Justice Department says he has flouted the order, noting that he
continues to assert on that site that zero income tax returns are legal. In
addition, he provides only a link there to the injunction.

Among the Justice Department's other evidence is a $150 "Commemorative
Injunction Packet," which went on sale at his Web site after the order was
issued.

The packet includes a copy of Mr. Schiff's 2002 tax return, showing zero
income, and his statement to the I.R.S. explaining his theory that no
individual has income under federal law, which, he says, defines income as
corporate profit.

The packet consists of the chief documents from the case before Judge
George. For those not inclined to wade through Mr. Schiff's book, with its
miasma of theorizing and digressions, it offers a crisp zero-tax-return
distillation, written for the court by Evan Davis, a lawyer in the Justice
Department's tax division.

Since Mr. Schiff already owes millions of dollars in taxes, the government
says fining him would be insignificant and has asked that he be jailed
instead and that two associates of his, Cindy Neun and Larry Cohen, each be
fined $5,000 a day until they, too, comply with the injunction.

Though the government cites a variety of evidence, Mr. Schiff has tried to
place the focus of the case on the fact that his packet is made up of
public records.

"The government wants to jail me for selling documents you can walk into
the courthouse and buy copies of for 50 cents a page," he said after the
hearing on Thursday, surrounded by three dozen supporters he had pulled
together on a day's notice.

Told of Mr. Schiff's tactic, Prof. Eugene Volokh, who teaches First
Amendment courses at U.C.L.A. Law School, said the public-document argument
would not shield the defendant if he was inciting people to commit crimes.

"If indeed what Schiff is doing is illegal commercial advertising -
fraudulent commercial advertising - it doesn't matter if he fraudulently
advertises using the public record," Professor Volokh said. "If the issue
is incitement to commit a crime, it doesn't matter if he quotes from the
public record. The real question is whether the content of the speech is
protected, not so much the source."

Mr. Schiff routinely applies the word "criminal" to federal judges,
including Judge George. His lawyer, Michael Stein, a First Amendment
specialist, said jailing someone for selling public documents - or for
expressing views about federal judges, whatever the merits of those views -
would set a dangerous precedent.

"The most clearly protected speech is the public debate about what is
happening in our court system," said Mr. Stein, who also plans to appeal
the court order. "This injunction is very broad, so broad that it basically
prohibits Mr. Schiff from saying what he believes."

Mr. Stein said the Justice Department was not acting simply on the ground
that Mr. Schiff's zero tax idea is unprotected false commercial speech.
Rather, he said, Mr. Schiff "is being prohibited from saying anything about
the tax laws that is contrary to what the Justice Department says those
laws say."

A notice of appeal from the order prohibiting Mr. Schiff and those acting
in concert with him from selling "The Federal Mafia" has been filed with
the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, said Allen
Lichtenstein, general counsel of the American Civil Liberties Union's
Nevada chapter. That chapter, as well as the American Booksellers
Association, the American Publishers Association, the American Library
Association and the writers' group PEN, will join in asking the appeals
court to vacate the order, Mr. Lichtenstein said.

On Thursday, some of the dozens of people who had turned out in support of
Mr. Schiff chuckled at how he had used public records to continue his
assault on the legitimacy of the tax system.

"He's a real troublemaker, isn't he?" said one of them, who declined to
identify himself.

In interviews, many of those supporters described the federal government as
a criminal organization systematically destroying economic opportunity for
all but the elite and using the tax code to undermine what they called a
right to not have their labor taxed.

Mr. Schiff's appearance at the hearing, held in a dark-paneled courtroom,
brought seven bailiffs and two plainclothesmen, although the supporters
were all polite and orderly.

Judge George began the proceeding with an unusual address lasting nearly 20
minutes. He indicated that he had received letters from many people
denouncing him for the injunction and that some, in crude language,
characterized him as lawless.

He explained that as a trial court judge, he was bound by the decisions of
the Ninth Circuit and the Supreme Court, and that in finding that Mr.
Schiff's zero tax return amounted to tax evasion, he had been following the
precedents of those higher courts.

The hearing on Thursday had not been scheduled until Tuesday, and so,
because Mr. Stein said he had been hired only Wednesday night and needed
time to develop a defense, Judge George set a new hearing for Sept. 4.

Mr. Stein said he expected that his client would be jailed after that
hearing, a view that Mr. Schiff said he unhappily shared.

Monday, August 18, 2003

 

Misc.

States to rebel against feds on medical marijuana?
----------
CNS
   "The escalating battle over whether marijuana can be
   legally distributed to people claiming 'medicinal'
   benefits from smoking the drug threatens to become an
   all-out rebellion over states' rights, according to
   marijuana activists." (8/15/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/7856837.html

One in 37 Americans has served prison time
----------
Miami Herald
   "5.6 million people with 'prison experience' represented about
   2.7 percent of the adult population of 210 million as of Dec. 31,
   2001, the [Dept of Justice] report found." The study did not
   include those held in jail temporarily. (8/18/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/982662973.html

Friday, August 15, 2003

 
CO cops man fake drug roadblocks
----------
Casper Star-Tribune
   Colorado police aren't allowed to set up checkpoints to see
   whether motorist have illegal drugs. But a court ruling
   lets them post signs warning of nonexistent roadblocks,
   and then pull over people who react. (8/15/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/521780805.html
 

 

Fw: Important Update: Yahoo! Groups Service Changes


----- Original Message -----
From: "Yahoo! Groups"
To:
Sent: Friday, August 15, 2003 2:16 AM
Subject: Important Update: Yahoo! Groups Service Changes


>
>
> *** PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL ***
>
> Dear Yahoo! Groups Moderator,
>
> Important update: The new date for service changes is August 21, 2003.
>
> You are receiving this notice because you are a moderator of one or more
> groups. Previously, we emailed you about upcoming service changes to
Yahoo!
> Groups. To give you more time to manage your files, we have pushed back
the
> date of these changes to August 21, 2003.
>
> To continue offering you a high quality, free service, Yahoo! Groups is
making
> the following changes:
>
> Message Attachments:
> Email attachments will no longer be archived in the Messages area,
although
> Yahoo! Groups will continue to deliver attachments sent by email. On
August
> 21st, all attachments in the Messages area will be removed, and Yahoo!
will be
> unable to retrieve the data. Please note: All of your group messages will
> remain. Only the attachments will be deleted.
>
> Before August 21st, if you want to preserve them, you must move your old
> message attachments. To do so, go to the Messages area and click on
"Expand
> Messages." This lets you view many attachments on one page so you can
download
> them easily. Then you can upload them to the Files and Photos areas in
your
> groups. The Files and Photos features will allow you to better organize
your
> email attachments.
>
>
> Files and Photos:
> You will now need a web membership to access a group's Files and Photos
areas.
> To make sure you have web memberships to all of your groups, please visit
this
> page: http://groups.yahoo.com/memwiz
>
>
> Add Members:
> Although there is no membership limit for your group, we are changing the
Add
> Members feature so you can add only 10 new members each day. You can
continue
> to use the Invite Members feature to invite as many people to your group
as you
> wish.
>
> For more details on the service changes described above, please visit our
help
> section http://help.yahoo.com/groups/groups-56.html.
>
> We hope you will pass this notice along to your group's members so they
are
> aware of the changes. Thank you for your support as we continue to improve
> Yahoo! Groups.
>
>
> Sincerely,
>
> The Yahoo! Groups Team
>
>
> This is a service email related to your use of Yahoo! Groups. Please do
not
> reply to this email. For Help or to read the FAQ, please visit
> http://help.yahoo.com/groups/groups-56.html. To learn more about Yahoo!'s
use
> of personal information please read our Privacy Policy:
> http://privacy.yahoo.com/privacy/us/groups/index.html.
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
>
>


Wednesday, August 13, 2003

 

Fw: LARRY BECRAFT BLEW IT???

 
Sheldon (Shelly) Waxman, Writer/Lawyer
"The Black Messiah Murders," Sam Cohen #1
"Piranhas On the Loose," Sam Cohen #2
"In the Teeth of the Wind,"
"All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting"
PURCHASE AT MY WEBSITE: http://thelawyer.info/ OR Call Iuniverse toll free 1-877-823-9235 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, August 13, 2003 12:37 PM
Subject: Re: LARRY BECRAFT BLEW IT???

I never liked the guy. I had a case many years ago that he tried. The D told me that Becraft "forced" him to go to trial and use Becraft's theory re. why taxes are not owed. I filed post-trial motions on that basis--denied of course.
 
 
Sheldon (Shelly) Waxman, Writer/Lawyer
"The Black Messiah Murders," Sam Cohen #1
"Piranhas On the Loose," Sam Cohen #2
"In the Teeth of the Wind,"
"All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting"
PURCHASE AT MY WEBSITE: http://thelawyer.info/ OR Call Iuniverse toll free 1-877-823-9235 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, August 13, 2003 12:19 PM
Subject: LARRY BECRAFT BLEW IT???


Sadly, I have to agree with the below poster.  Larry indeed "blew it".
 
****************************************************
From: <FKSmart@aol.com>
To: <mhalay@satx.rr.com>
Cc: <PLANETNEWS@aol.com>; <WTPChristian@yahoogroups.com>; <People_for_better_government@yahoogroups.com>; <coordinators@us.wtpcongress.us>; <apfn-1@yahoogroups.com>; <legality-of-income-tax@yahoogroups.com>; <CCCC-USA@yahoogroups.com>; <nite-org@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: Re: LARRY BECRAFT BLEW IT!!!
Date: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 20:47 PM
 
In a message dated 8/12/03 5:29:05 PM Central Daylight Time,
mhalay@satx.rr.com writes:
 

> Oh, no!  The Fox News Channel finally aired a real piece of news --
> Vernie's Victory of the IRS -- and the "good guys" blew it!  What a monumental waste
> of time!  The Tax Honesty Movement was made to look even more hopeless,
> idiotic, and criminal.  Larry Becraft (officer of the court -- member of the BAR)
> had a priceless and precious window of opportunity to score major points for
> We The People and he fumbled the ball miserably.  When given the chance to
> speak, he didn't refer to the misapplication of the income tax code, the lies
> and deception of the Federal Reserve, the improperly ratified 16th Amendment,
> the IRS's incompetence and failure to be able to properly interpret their
> own laws, the fact that income taxes don't go to pay for government services
> but merely to pay the interest on the national debt (as proven by the Grace
> Commission Report), or ANYTHING of any substance at all.  In fact, he actually
> gave the impression that Vernie may still have to pay all those taxes and he
> might as well have said, "At least she won't have to go to jail and we're not
> sure how this would play out for other 'tax protesters'.  We'll just have to
> see".  He did not say ONE THING that actually defended the beliefs of those
> in the tax honesty movement whatsoever.  John Gibson and Judge Napolitano (sp)
> made them both look ridiculous and probably succeeded in dashing any hopes
> of anyone who may have even been thinking of "not paying their fair share."

> If the opposition wanted to deal a crushing blow to the tax honesty movement
> in one swelled foop, they could not have orchestrated a more effective 
> scenario:  Let the protestor win in court and get a whole nation of protestors
> excited ... then crucify the poor sap and her puppet attorney on national TV
> and in subsequent court cases. 

> I'm sorry folks, but I believe Larry Becraft is selling us down the river
> ... and I don't care if he reads this e-mail!  I'm sure he's an intelligent
> man, but so far he's not convinced me that he's on our side.  Just the same, I
> would be delighted to have to eat those words. 

> Good grief, Charlie Brown.  I'm almost afraid to tune in to Hannity and
> Colmes tonight.

> Renee
>
 
Renee:
 
Relax. 
 
Rome wasn't torn down in a day.
 
Acknowledge that the Lord God Jesus Christ's Divine Providence is in control
and have faith.   The truth is free!  There's is nothing Larry or anyone can
do to stop the truth from being received and manifested in our world. 
 
Let the light shine!
 
Peace and God Bless,
 
Fred Smart
 
 
**********************************
"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never
will. Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out
the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them,
and these will continue till they have resisted with either words or
blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the
endurance of those whom they suppress." - Frederick Douglas

 

If You're Interested

I will be interviewed live on the Jim Blasingame radio show on over twenty national stations. Blasingame hosts the small business advocate program, which is nationally renowned. We will discuss my book, "All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting." My appearance will be from 8 a.m. (eastern) to 8:30 a.m. this Friday, August 15th. Blasingame's website features live streaming audio, which will also be available as a replay all weekend.
 
 
Sheldon (Shelly) Waxman, Writer/Lawyer
"The Black Messiah Murders," Sam Cohen #1
"Piranhas On the Loose," Sam Cohen #2
"In the Teeth of the Wind,"
"All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting"
PURCHASE AT MY WEBSITE: http://thelawyer.info/ OR Call Iuniverse toll free 1-877-823-9235 

Tuesday, August 12, 2003

 

Saved by an unproven sniffer

http://www.mapinc.org/newscc/v03/n1209/a01.html?397

US FL: Accuracy of Drug Dogs Is Challenged
by Christopher Goffard, (07 Aug 2003) St. Petersburg
Times Florida

An Appeals Court Throws Out A Hillsborough Case,
Saying No Evidence Was Presented To Show A
Drug-sniffing Dog's "Track Record"

TAMPA - Hillsborough sheriff's deputies deployed their
drug-detecting dog, Razor, to sniff around the car
when they stopped motorist Gary Alan Matheson for a
traffic infraction on Hillsborough Avenue.

The German shepherd signaled the presence of drugs,
which deputies used as probable cause for the May 1999
search.  The search revealed morphine and
methamphetamine.

After failing to get the evidence suppressed in court,
Matheson pleaded guilty to drug-possession charges.
He received probation in 2000.

This week, however, the 2nd District Court of Appeal
threw out the case against Matheson, saying the state
had not presented any evidence of the dog's "track
record" of sniffing out drugs.

The Sheriff's Office acknowledged that it did not keep
records of Razor's success rate in the field and that
the dog had no training to distinguish between actual
drugs and "dead scents" from drugs no longer present.


In its unanimous ruling, the appeals court also noted
that Razor had received only five weeks of
drug-sniffing training, whereas the Customs Service
puts its dogs through a 12-week course and teaches
them to disregard residual scents.

The Customs Service requires its dogs to have a
perfect record; only half of the dogs complete the
program.  But the certification program Razor attended
requires only 70 percent success.

The court's ruling, which also affects law enforcement
in Pinellas County, does not forbid drug searches by
dogs or declare them uniformly unreliable.  But
without better training, the court ruled, Razor should
not have automatically been considered reliable enough
to give deputies probable cause for the car search.

"However much we dog lovers may tend to
anthropomorphize their behavior, the fact is that dogs
are not motivated to acquire skills that will assist
them in their chosen profession of detecting
contraband," wrote Judge Stevan Northcutt.

Local law agencies say it's too early to speculate on
the ruling's impact.

Susan Shanahan, the assistant attorney general who is
handling the appeal for the state, said the state
probably will ask the 2nd District Court of Appeal for
a rehearing.

"The opinion's not final, and policies won't
necessarily change until that opinion is final," she
said.

The case would potentially have far-reaching
implications and could influence cases nationwide,
Shanahan said.

Some people are already celebrating the ruling.

"It'll change the way they do their training and
record-keeping," said Tampa lawyer Rex Curry,
Matheson's defense attorney.  He argued Matheson's
motion to suppress the drug evidence.

Curry said defense lawyers from across the country
already are asking him for copies of his suppression
motion for use in their own cases involving
drug-sniffing dogs.

"The whole defense community's really barking about
this," he said.

Hillsborough Sheriff's Office spokesman Lt.  Rod Reder
said the office will examine the ruling.

"We hope this really can be overturned," Reder said.
"We find the dogs to be a very powerful and fair tool
in the war on drugs."

In the past year, the 10 dogs the Sheriff's Office
uses for drug searches and routine patrol handled
1,595 calls.  Of those, 378 were drug searches of
houses and cars, Reder said.

St.  Petersburg police officials didn't want to
comment on the decision, saying they needed time to
research its implications.

Deputies in charge of the Pinellas County Sheriff's
Office canine unit have been developing a system to
track their dogs' success rates, said Detective Tim
Goodman, an agency spokesman.

A supplement noting whether the dog was successful
during a search goes into each report, Goodman said.
Deputies have been working on making a master list to
track the performance of the dogs.  Goodman said the
agency also tracks how the dogs perform in training
exercises.


 

Misc.

Tax resistors face double whammy of fed, state agents
----------
Boston Globe
   "In an era when both state and federal budgets are strained, tax
   cheats, who are believed to cost the US government billions of
   dollars annually, are getting more attention." The IRS is
   pursuing deals with the states to combine resources to go after
   those who don't pay taxes. (8/11/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/839509965.html
 
Idaho groups organize to oppose Patriot Act

Boston Globe
   "Soon pagans were mingling with Mormons, semiautomatic-weapons
   collectors with gun control advocates, Green Party members and
   Libertarians with Republicans and Democrats" in an Idaho group
   called the Boise Patriots, whose opposition to USA Patriot unites
   them across diverse views. (8/11/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/833639786.html

Sheldon (Shelly) Waxman, Writer/Lawyer
"The Black Messiah Murders," Sam Cohen #1
"Piranhas On the Loose," Sam Cohen #2
"In the Teeth of the Wind,"
"All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting"
PURCHASE AT MY WEBSITE: http://thelawyer.info/ OR Call Iuniverse toll free 1-877-823-9235 

 

Check it out

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Kuglin TV Interviews
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2003 13:26:07 -0500
From: Robert G. Bernhoft, J.D. <
rgbernhoft@voyager.net>

Dear clients, colleagues, and friends:

For your information, Fox News Channel will be airing a number of televised
interviews this afternoon and evening regarding the recent acquittals in USA
v. Kuglin:

1.  John Gibson's "The Big Story"
      4:40 Central
      Vernie Kuglin and Attorney Larry Becraft

2.  Hannnity & Colmes
      8:30 p.m. Central
      Vernie Kuglin and Attorney Larry Becraft

3.  Gretta Van Susteren
      9:15 Central
      Attorney Robert G. Bernhoft

Best regards,

Robert G. Bernhoft
Attorney and Counselor at Law
The Law Office of Robert G. Bernhoft, S.C.
207 East Buffalo Street, Suite 600
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
(414) 276-3333  telephone
(414) 276-2822  facsimile
rgbernhoft@voyager.net
Sheldon (Shelly) Waxman, Writer/Lawyer
"The Black Messiah Murders," Sam Cohen #1
"Piranhas On the Loose," Sam Cohen #2
"In the Teeth of the Wind,"
"All Anybody Needs to Know About Independent Contracting"
PURCHASE AT MY WEBSITE: http://thelawyer.info/ OR Call Iuniverse toll free 1-877-823-9235 

Monday, August 11, 2003

 

Hooray

An article in USA Today Sunday reports that, "States are granting early
release to non-violent prisoners, cutting sentences, sending drug
offenders to treatment centers and revising tough-on-crime laws in reverse
of a 20-year trend." According to the article, state lawmakers are "short
of cash to pay for some of the anti-crime and anti-drug laws approved in
the 1980s and 1990s."
(USA Today)
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-08-10-crime-usat_x.htm
 

 

Finally

Justice Kennedy calls for scrapping mandatory minimum sentences
----------
Fox News
   "'Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our
   sentences too long,' Kennedy told the annual meeting of the
   American Bar Association, his remark met by long applause. In all
   too many cases, mandatory minimum sentences are unjust.'"
   (8/10/03)
http://www.free-market.net/rd/981696467.html


Sunday, August 10, 2003

 

JURY POWER IN ACTION


Memphis Jury acquits pilot, who questioned IRS, of tax-evasion counts

Jury acquits pilot, who questioned IRS, of tax-evasion counts

http://www.gomemphis.com/mca/local_news/article/0,1426,MCA_437_2169609,00.ht
ml
By Shirley Downing downing@gomemphis.com August 9, 2003

A federal jury Friday found FedEx pilot Vernice Kuglin not guilty of
evading income taxes on $920,000.

The question of tax payment was unresolved at the end of the five-day
trial.

"I think it is safe to assume the IRS will attempt civil collection, but
she is not guilty of tax evasion," said defense attorney Robert Bernhoft of
Milwaukee.

"I feel justified," a grinning Kuglin said after the verdict was returned
at midafternoon. She stood outside the federal building, chatting with
supporters and jurors.

Federal prosecutor Joe Murphy was not available for comment.

Kuglin, 58, was charged with six counts of tax evasion that could have
meant up to 30 years in prison and $1.5 million in fines.

The government accused Kuglin of filing false W4 forms for the period from
1996 to 2001.

Kuglin, a pilot for FedEx since 1985, said she had paid taxes like anyone
else for most of her life. But about 10 or 11 years ago, she began to
question the federal tax system. She began to read court documents, legal
opinions and the federal tax code.

She said she found what she felt were contradictions.

She wanted to know where in the federal tax code it said she was liable for
taxes.

Kuglin wrote the Internal Revenue Service twice in 1995 with questions but
said she didn't get a response.

Murphy, in closing arguments on Thursday, said Kuglin did have an
opportunity to discuss her situation with the IRS, to learn what she owed
and what documents she was required to file "and she didn't."

Defense attorney Larry Becraft of Huntsville, Ala., said Kuglin decided
mandatory payment of income taxes "did not apply to her."

After the verdict Friday, Becraft said the federal tax code is a confusing
conglomeration that "at best is a walking due process violation."

He said the average American simply doesn't understand the tax code.

Juror Barbara Snodgras of Memphis said the jury did not convict because "we
all felt that the prosecution didn't prove its case."

When asked if she planned to start paying federal income taxes again,
Kuglin replied: "I will pay all the taxes for which I am liable."



Thursday, August 07, 2003

 

fUNNY STUFF

And how about--"There are 3 tooooos in the English language--to, two, too. Hah, hah.

                    Only a Genius Can Learn English

If you ever feel stupid, then just  read on. If you've learned to speak
fluent English, you must be a genius!   This little treatise on the lovely
language we share is only for the brave. Peruse at your leisure, English
lovers.

Reasons why the English language is  so hard to learn:

1) The bandage was wound around the wound.
2) The farm was used to produce produce.
3) The dump was so full that it had to refuse more refuse.
4) We must polish the Polish furniture.
5) He could lead if he would get the lead out.
6) The soldier decided to desert his dessert in the desert.
7) Since there is no time like the present, he thought it was time
             to present the present.
8) A bass was painted on the head of the bass drum.
9) When shot at, the dove dove into the bushes.
10) I did not object to the object.
11) The insurance was invalid for the invalid.
12) There was a row among the oarsmen about how to row.
13) They were too close to the door to close it.
14) The buck does funny things when the does are present.
15) A seamstress and a sewer fell down into a sewer line.
16) To help with planting, the farmer taught his sow to sow.
17) The wind was too strong to wind the sail.
18) After a number of injections my jaw got number.
19) Upon seeing the tear in the painting I shed a tear.
20) I had to subject the subject to a series of tests.
21) How can I intimate this to my most intimate friend?

There is no egg in eggplant nor ham in hamburger; neither apple nor pine
in pineapple. English muffins weren't invented in England or French fries
in France. Sweetmeats are candies while sweetbreads, which aren't sweet,
are meat.

Quicksand  works slowly, boxing rings are square and a guinea pig is neither
from Guinea nor is it a pig.

And why is it that writers write but fingers don't fing, grocers don't groce and hammers don't ham?

If the plural of tooth is teeth,  why isn't the plural of booth beeth?

One goose, 2 geese. So one moose, 2 meese? Doesn't it seem crazy that
you can make amends but not one amend. If you have a bunch of odds and
ends and get rid of all but one of them, what do you call it? Is it an odd,
or an end?

If teachers taught, why didn't preachers praught? If a vegetarian eats
vegetables, what does a humanitarian eat?

In what language do people recite at a play and play at a recital?

Ship by truck and send cargo by ship?  Have noses that run and feet that
smell?

How can a slim chance and a fat chance be the same, while a wise man and
a wise guy are opposites?

You have to marvel at the unique lunacy of a language in which your house can
burn up as it burns down, in which you fill in a form by filling it out and
in which, an alarm goes off by going on.

English was invented by people, not computers, and it reflects the creativity
of the human race, which, of course, is not a race at all.

That is why, when the stars are out, they are visible, but when the lights
are out, they are invisible.


P.S. - And why the heck doesn't   "Buick"  rhyme  with   "quick"?
 
 

 

I Have Been Studying doing E-Mailing Ads But Have Been Disuaded By the Spam Talk

THIS HAS CHANGED MY MIND

An article at Wired is getting attention at places like Slashdot:

http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,59907,00.html

It seems that someone discovered a hole in an email spammer's database and was able
to grab lots of information concerning Internet users who are apparently placing orders
for those quack nostrums that claim to enlarge a male's, uh, equipment.

The winning comment in the Slashdot discussion thread has to be this one:

"I alone am responsible for all 6000 orders. Soon, very soon, my penis will be the size of North America, and the world will quake in fear."

--dean

Swollen Orders Show Spam's Allure  By Brian McWilliams

Story location: http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,59907,00.html

02:00 AM Aug. 06, 2003 PT

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire -- A security flaw at a website operated by the purveyors of penis-enlargement pills has provided the world with a depressing answer to the question: Who in their right mind would buy something from a spammer?

An order log left exposed at one of Amazing Internet Products' websites revealed that, over a four-week period, some 6,000 people responded to e-mail ads and placed orders for the company's Pinacle herbal supplement. Most customers ordered two bottles of the pills at a price of $50 per bottle.
 

Do the math and you begin to understand why spammers are willing to put up with the wrath of spam recipients, Internet service providers and federal regulators.

Since July 4, Amazing Internet Products would have grossed more than half a million dollars from Goringly.biz, one of several sites operated by the company to hawk its penis pills.

Among the people who responded in July to Amazing's spam, which bore the subject line, "Make your penis HUGE," was the manager of a $6 billion mutual fund, who ordered two bottles of Pinacle to be shipped to his Park Avenue office in New York City. A restaurateur in Boulder, Colorado, requested four bottles. The president of a California firm that sells airplane parts and is active in the local Rotary Club gave out his American Express card number to pay for six bottles, or $300 worth, of Pinacle. The coach of an elementary school lacrosse club in Pennsylvania ordered four bottles of the pills.

Other customers included the head of a credit-repair firm, a chiropractor, a veterinarian, a landscaper and several people from the military. Numerous women also were evidently among Amazing Internet's customers.

All were evidently undaunted by the fact that Amazing's order site contained no phone number, mailing address or e-mail address for contacting the company. Nor were they seemingly concerned that their order data, including their credit card info, addresses and phone numbers, were transmitted to the site without the encryption used by most legitimate online stores.

"There was a picture on the top of the page that said, 'As Seen on TV,' and I guess that made me think it was legit," said a San Diego salesman who ordered two bottles of Pinacle in early July. The man, who asked not to be named, said he has yet to receive his pills, despite the site's promise to fill the order in five days.

A former employee of Amazing Internet Products, who requested anonymity, reported the company's tendency to expose order log files to Wired News. The file was viewable by anyone with a Web browser who truncated one of the Internet addresses published by the company.

Besides legitimate orders, Amazing Internet's log file also contained numerous complaints from spam recipients, who used the order form to register their unhappiness at the site's lack of a proper list-removal option.

Faith York, a rehabilitation counselor in Maine, left Amazing Internet a few choice words last month after an e-mail advertising Pinacle pills slipped through AOL's spam filters and landed in her 10-year-old son's inbox. In a telephone interview last week, York said she lost her temper when she discovered that neither the e-mail nor the ordering site included any means of contacting the company.

"The only way I could send them information was by making up an order, and in the spaces for address and whatnot I described my discontent at them sending my son that kind of e-mail," York said.

The registration record for the site, and the ones for the dozens of other sites used by Amazing Internet Products, provide little help in tracking down the company's owners. The domain records typically list a fictitious registrant and a post office box in Manchester, New Hampshire, along with a nonworking phone number and e-mail address.

To further throw people off its tracks, Amazing Internet and its affiliates send out their loads of junk e-mail using fake return addresses, or the real return address of an innocent third party.

But records on file with the New Hampshire secretary of state show that Braden Bournival, a 19-year-old high-school dropout who is also listed as vice president of the New Hampshire Chess Association, owns Amazing Internet Products.

Bournival refused repeated requests for interviews about his business. When approached for comment at a chess tournament in Merrimack, New Hampshire, last month, Bournival, who is a national-master-caliber player, ran away from a Wired News reporter.

The registered agent for Amazing Internet Products, Mark Wright of Manchester law firm McLane, Graf, Raulerson, & Middleton, also declined to be interviewed.

Amazing Internet leases several thousand square feet of office space at the Tower Mill Center on Bedford Street in Manchester, where, according to the former employee, Bournival's teenage sister fills padded envelopes with bottles of Pinacle and ships them off to customers.

An investigation (registration to Salon.com required) last month revealed that Bournival's mentor and business partner is Davis Wolfgang Hawke, a chess expert and former neo-Nazi leader who turned to the spam business in 1999 after it became public that his father was Jewish.

By all appearances, Bournival's and Hawke's spam business is highly profitable. Amazing Internet pays a supplier around $5 per bottle of pills, and gives affiliates who send spam on its behalf about $10 per order, said the former associate. That leaves plenty of room for a tidy profit in the low-overhead spam business.

But does the stuff work? Amazing Internet's spams make this promise to Pinacle users: "Realistically, you can grow up to 3 FULL INCHES IN LENGTH."

The Federal Trade Commission said there is no proof that the pills work as advertised. But the FTC does not have the resources to press a case against such companies, according to spokesman Richard Cleland.

Earlier this year, Joe Miksch, a columnist for the Fairfield County Weekly, published a humorous account of what happened when he took Pinacle for 30 days. It went something like this: "Day one: No change. Day two: No change. Day three: No change. Days four through 30: See above."

But according to the former associate, Amazing Internet Products makes good on its enlargement guarantee, and -- poor security precautions aside -- protects customers' data.

"I don't know if the stuff works. But Brad has a weird sense of ethics. He would never use a stolen credit card, and he honors requests for refunds," he said.

To that end, one of Amazing's websites, which has since gone offline, listed a toll-free customer service number -- 800-576-4044. The company's PayPal account shows two e-mail addresses: vze3c9sk@verizon.net and frappe_boy@yahoo.com.



Monday, August 04, 2003

 

WHAZ UP

2]
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/04/technology/04ECOM.html

Two Internet companies, Google and Overture, have made a brisk business of
selling ads that appear alongside Web search results. But so far, the big
customers for these ad services have been online merchants and operators of
search sites. Now, though, online publishers are beginning to sense the
possibilities of having Google or Overture serve ads to their audiences.

Publishers, including The Washington Post's Web site, which is owned by The
Washington Post Company, and the car-buyers advice site Edmunds.com, have
turned to Google or Overture to sell ads pegged to the content that each
visitor selects. When a visitor goes to the Book World page on
WashingtonPost.com, for example, the person is likely to see a text ad for
a self-publishing company or some other book-related advertisement, placed
there by Google's advertising service.

"This is a very important trend, particularly for Web publishers who've had
a hard time selling out their banner ads," said Jordan Rohan, an analyst
with the Soundview Technology Group, an investment firm. "This is the
bridge between Web content and search."

The new service is an extension of the bid-for-placement service pioneered
by Overture, in which marketers pay for their ad to appear atop search
results whenever an Internet user types a certain word or phrase. Under
that approach, when an Internet user enters "airline tickets" as a search
query, for example, the text ad of the merchant who has bid the most will
appear atop the results on Overture.com. The same approach works on
Overture clients like Yahoo Inc., which recently agreed to acquire
Overture, and the Microsoft Corporation's MSN. Bids range from a dime or so
to $1.50 or more for terms like airline tickets. The average fee is 40 cents.

A similar system is used by Google on its own Google.com site as well as by
clients that include Ask Jeeves Inc. and AOL Time Warner Inc.'s America
Online.

When serving ads for content sites, both Overture and Google employ
technology that infers the topic of a page by scanning for words and
phrases, searching through a database of tens of thousands of advertisers,
then delivering a relevant text ad. In some cases that is not difficult.
For instance, on Weather.com's golf forecast page for Norfolk, Va.,
Google's service - which it calls AdSense - can deliver ads for marketers
who had bid to have their ads appear above Google search results whenever
users type "Norfolk Virginia golf courses" or some similar phrase.

Joe Fiveash, the senior vice president for business and product development
at Weather Channel Interactive Inc., which operates the site Weather.com,
said that while the site had no shortage of large national advertisers, it
did not have the sales force or the technology to efficiently insert ads of
smaller advertisers in niches left open by the large advertisers.

Mr. Fiveash noted the prospect of finding local golf ads on the Norfolk,
Va., golf forecast page, and said: "We don't call on the Norfolk golf
courses. That's the gap we've been able to fill."

Neither the privately held Weather Channel Interactive nor Google would
disclose financial details of the advertising agreement, but Mr. Fiveash
said the revenue generated by the program "is certainly material to us."

The technology is not yet foolproof. The online edition of The New York
Post, which is owned by the News Corporation, ran an article last month
about a murder in which the victim's body parts were packed in a suitcase,
and Google served up an ad for a luggage dealer.

"We are working with Google to fine-tune this program," said Suzanne
Halpin, a New York Post spokeswoman. "We take it on a case-by-case basis
and do our best to remove inappropriate ads."

Susan Wojcicki, Google's director of product management, said the company
was learning from experience and refining its technology to recognize
situations where marketers would not want their ads to run, while also
letting publishers delete inappropriate ads.

Despite the occasional stumble, Ms. Wojcicki said Google's AdSense program
had performed well, both technically and financially. Google does not
release revenue figures, but Ms. Wojcicki said the company has attracted a
growing number of publishing clients, which it would not disclose. "We
believe it'll be a significant part of our revenue going forward," she
said. "We've seen a lot of demand from publishers who've not had an easy
way to monetize their pages."

Google's AdSense program is open to large and small publishers alike,
although publishers who serve fewer than 20 million pages to users each
month must use a self-service method to register and set up their pages to
accept the Google ads.

Overture, meanwhile, argues that a fully automated program like the one
Google offers is unreliable.

"Technology will never do the job of a human in making sure this ad makes
sense in this news story," said Bill Demas, Overture's senior vice
president and general manager of the partner business and solutions group.

Mr. Demas said Overture's service, Content Match, had a promising start.
The service was rolled out five weeks ago with five online publishers, and
last week added a sixth, Knight Ridder Digital, which manages 32 Web sites.
Knight Ridder Digital is a unit of Knight Ridder Inc.

Can Overture guarantee that its service will not place inappropriate ads on
the pages of its publishing clients? "Mistakes are inevitable," Mr. Demas
said, "but a high percentage of the time, we'll get it right." A staff of
nearly a dozen editors, he said, helps screen inappropriate ads, or those
that may violate exclusive agreements a publisher has struck with existing
advertisers.

As other search companies develop paid search capabilities of their own,
Overture and Google will have plenty of competition, analysts predict.
Indeed, they already face competition, most notably from Sprinks, part of
the About Inc. unit of Primedia.

Lance Podell, the general manager of Sprinks, said the company had taken
the guesswork out of placing an advertiser's message by requiring marketers
to bid on specific topics, like computer peripherals, that would appear on
a network of online publishers, rather than simply choosing key words or
phrases. Mr. Podell acknowledged that such an approach could possibly
result in inappropriate ad placements. But he said they could be found and
fixed more quickly than on Google and Overture, because the ads appear on
discrete categories of pages, not on all possible pages of a publisher's
site. Advertisers also have a mechanism to pause their ads immediately if
they see an incorrect placement.

The approach is a variation on what the industry refers to as "contextual
advertising." Since its debut last October, Sprinks has attracted clients
like CNET, iVillage, Forbes.com, America Online and CBS MarketWatch.
Sprinks may have been among the first to employ this particular technique,
but the concept of contextual advertising has been an elusive goal of
online marketers for years. During the dot-com boom, advertising companies
like Doubleclick tried to use personal information and other data to
display ads more closely aligned with a consumer's interests, but were
rebuffed by privacy advocates and an unreceptive advertising market.

Now, contextual advertising is becoming the norm, as more newspaper Web
sites, among others, require readers to disclose personal information, then
track their surfing behavior to understand whether readers may be
interested in buying, say, a car - and if so, what type might fit their
budgets.

Combining such information with a visitor's search queries would seem to
promise more relevant ads for consumers and better responses for
advertisers. Stephanie Krebs, marketing manager of ForRent.com, an
apartment listing service operated by Trader Publishing, said she began
advertising with Google's AdSense in March, bidding on thousands of terms
like "apartment" or "apartment for rent in Dallas."

Ms. Krebs said that Google did not disclose which publishers had run her
ads, and that only about 0.5 percent of users who see the ads click on
them. That compares with 3.5 percent of those who see them on Google search
pages. But of those who do click, she said, about 12 percent actually turn
into ForRent.com customers, compared with about 10 percent of those who
come from Google.com. "So," she said, "it's definitely working in the
positive for us."


Friday, August 01, 2003

 

IT'S LONG BUT INFORMATIVE

 
A LANDMARK TURNING POINT IN INTEREST RATES



A radical shift of monumental dimensions is sweeping the globe, and the
shift is about to hit the fan ...

After years of calm and complacency, bond investors are suddenly panicking,
bond prices are crashing, and interest rates are surging.

The shift is affecting Treasury bonds, Ginnie Maes, Fannie Maes, tax-free
municipals, and corporate bonds. It has struck high-rated bonds, junk
bonds, and foreign bonds. It is happening in New York, London, Frankfurt,
and Tokyo.

There is no escape and no exception. When long-term interest rates rise,
bond prices inevitably decline across the board. Indeed, right now, every
single long-term bond on the planet is falling. To better understand the
impact, put yourself in the shoes of bond investors:

If you bought the 5 3/8% Treasury bond of 2031 at its peak of $120.80, you
have seen your investment plunge to $103.62, a 14% loss in just 36 days.

If you bought the 7 3/8% Cummins Inc. of 2028 at its peak price of $101.08,
you've watched it sink to $87.92, a loss of 13% in just 43 days.

Investors holding bonds issued by Japan or Germany, or by IBM, GMAC, or
hundreds of other companies, have suffered similar declines.

If declines of this magnitude were in stocks, it would not be so
surprising. But remember: We're talking about bonds, and their declines are
ringing alarm bells in Washington ... sounding a wake-up call for fixed
income investors ... and throwing into doubt a list of widely believed myths:


The myth that bonds are "safe." The reality: The bond markets of the world
are a great bubble, artificially pumped up by the Federal Reserve and other
desperate central banks that have been trying to save their economies. Now,
that bubble is beginning to burst.


The myth that the Fed can always lower long-term interest rates (and boost
long-term bond prices) simply by cutting short-term interest rates. The
shocker: The Fed just lowered short-term interest rates to 1%, but as soon
as it did, long-term interest rates went up - not down. (See July issue).


The myth that interest rates rise only when the economy and employment are
growing. The truth: The economic recovery is still weak, with employment
still stuck in the mud. But long-term interest rates are already surging.


The myth that long-term interest rates rise only when inflation is rising.
The truth: Rates are rising despite the fact that deflation is still raging
across the globe. (I'll explain why in a moment.)


The ultimate myth - that the Fed and central banks control short-term
interest rates. Most of the time, yes. But as you've just seen, when bond
investors are determined to sell - for whatever reason - they drive bond
prices down and bond interest rates up, and there's virtually nothing the
Fed can do to stop them. Later, if bond rates rise far enough, the Fed will
have no choice but to let short-term rates go up as well.

In the final analysis, it is the natural forces of supply and demand - not
the Fed - that determine the fate of interest rates.




A Ticking Time Bomb for the World Economy

Even with US and foreign interest rates at the lowest level in more than
half a century, the major economies of the world were in a funk -

The United States in a so-called "jobless recovery" ...

Japan facing its fifth recession since 1990.

Germany in the first stages of a recession ...

These are the first-, second-, and third-largest economies in the world! If
they are already struggling, even with ultra-low interest rates, what will
happen with higher interest rates?

These three economies have the most modern financial systems, the most
powerful central banks. If they can't control their long-term interest
rates, who can?

All three countries are now running the largest budget deficits in the
history of mankind. If they have already lost control of their finances
even before big declines in their economies, what will happen if their
economies sink further?

All three are beginning to find it more difficult to attract willing buyers
for their bonds without offering higher yields. If this is already a
problem now, even with their promises of permanently low short-term
interest rates, what will happen if they are forced to break that promise?

The answer: Higher interest rates (whether long- or short-term) will
fracture the already-fragile, arthritic spine of the world economy.

Higher interest rates will drag down the profits of virtually every company
with large debts; and large debts is a permanent feature among a majority
of companies in America and around the world.

Higher interest rates will slow down corporate financing and investment,
consumer borrowing and spending. Higher interest rates will affect
trillions of transactions in virtually every sector of every economy in the
world.

In the United States, for example, one sector - easily the most vulnerable
of all to rising rates - has already begun to weaken ...

Is the Mortgage Bubble Bursting?

No economist anywhere will dispute the fact that the most pivotal - and
fragile - industry in the US is housing and construction.

Throughout the last three years, while techs wrecked and manufacturing
tumbled, housing has been the last bastion of support for consumer
spending, retail sales, and the entire economy.

Problem: The housing bubble was driven by the mortgage refinancing boom;
and the refi boom, in turn, was driven by ridiculously low mortgage rates.

Now, take away the low mortgage rates, and what do you get? You get a chain
reaction of events that could lead to the greatest housing bust in decades:
A sharp slowdown in refinancing ... a sudden disappearance of cash in the
market ... a new wave of mortgage defaults ... a cascade of prices ... and,
ultimately, a bursting bubble that could make the tech wreck seem tame by
comparison.

Is it already happening? It's too soon to say with certainty. But the MBA
index of mortgage loan applications - both for new purchases and for
refinancing - has plunged 27% just in the past six weeks. If this trend
continues, it implies a prompt end to the housing boom.

An end to that boom will rock the boat of every major player in this market
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other major mortgage lenders ... insurance
companies, banks, savings and loans, plus any investor who has bought
mortgages or mortgage-backed securities. It will knock the wind out of
consumers. And it will be murder for corporate profits.

Why the Interest Rate Rise You've Seen So Far Is Just the First Phase

In recent months, bond investors had been counting on deflation to keep
interest rates low and the value of their bonds up. They were encouraged
when, for the first time in 70 years, a Fed Chairman began to publicly
voice his own fears of deflation. And they were absolutely delighted when
Mr. Greenspan actually hinted he'd buy bonds in large quantities if that's
what it would take to prevent deflation from spreading.

But now bonds are falling (and interest rates rising) despite deflation,
and investors are wondering: WHY?

The answer: Bond prices are going down for reasons that have little to do
with inflation or deflation:

Reason #1. Bond prices are falling because they were way too high to begin
with. They were artificially pumped up by a dozen Fed rate cuts. As with
any investment vehicle - stocks, commodities, real estate - when prices
rise to the stratosphere, all it takes is a subtle shift in market
psychology, and prices come crashing down. Bond prices are no different.

Reason #2. Bond prices are falling because bond owners are selling; and
they are selling because they need the money. They need it to pay bills. Or
they want to use it for other investments.

Reason #3. Bond prices are falling because of the growing supplies of new
bonds being issued - plus the threat of still bigger supplies on the way.
Who is issuing all these new bonds? The list of just the major issuers
would fill every issue of Safe Money until the end of 2005. It includes:

US corporations like General Motors, Dominion Resources, El Paso Natural
Gas, JP Morgan Chase, Westlake Chemical, and hundreds of others! The CFOs
see that borrowing costs are still near the lowest levels in their
lifetimes, but they also see those costs starting to move higher. So, many
are scrambling to lock down any funds they might need - for future
emergencies or for future growth - now, while they still can.

Cities and states! Many just can't raise taxes or cut spending fast enough
to eliminate their bulging deficits. So, they have no choice but to borrow
the money. That means issuing new bonds in large amounts. Westchester
County, Philadelphia, Washington State, and Minnesota are just some of the
many with major recent issues.

Mortgage companies! Although the refinancing boom is beginning to cool, the
number of new mortgages created each day is still near the highest levels
of all time. These mortgages are then bundled up and sold to investors as
mortgage-backed bonds in huge amounts. Just last year, Fannie Mae sold $325
billion ... Freddie Mac, $191 billion ... and other companies another $323
billion.

Then, while each of these big players is scrambling for their share of your
money, brace yourself for the onslaught of debt issues from the biggest
borrower in the world ...

The US Government Will Dump at LEAST $350 Billion in New Debt on the Market
Before Year End

Why does the government need to raise so much money so fast? The reason is
obvious: To finance its out-of-control budget deficit.

Until recently, bond investors ignored the deficit. They assumed the Fed
would protect them, by continually lowering interest rates or even by
buying bonds directly.

No more! Today, no one can possibly ignore the most rapid swing from
surplus to deficit in over a half century ... the largest federal deficit
(in absolute terms) in the history of mankind ... and most troubling of all
... the fact that the government's deficit estimates are shifting so darn
rapidly.

Just two years ago, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) projected a
surplus of $2.9 trillion for the six years between 2003 and 2008. Now, the
same government agency is estimating a total deficit of $1.9 trillion. It
is one of the most dramatic reversals of all time - a total swing of $4.8
trillion!

Heck, just in January, it said the deficit for 2003 would be $300 billion,
already a shocker at that time. Now, only six months later, it says it's
going to be $455 billion?!

I don't expect perfection, and I I'm sure you don't either. We can tolerate
forecasting errors of 5% or even 10%. But an error of over 50% in just six
months?! It's both unbelievable and unforgivable.

Do you fully recognize how serious this really is? It means that the
government and its agencies will probably have to raise at least $350
billion in new funds between now and year-end.

Moreover, it means that no one - let alone bond investors - can trust the
government's projections any more. The estimates have been so wildly
optimistic, they have lost all credibility.

And sadly, the current government figures are equally wild in their
optimistic assumptions - rosy forecasts for the economy, rosy expectations
for the reconstruction of Iraq ... plus dicey budget accounting.

I've warned you about this repeatedly in Safe Money. Back in 2000, I told
you the so-called "budget surplus" was a mirage that would soon be
transformed into the largest budget deficit in history. In 2001 and 2002, I
repeated those warnings.

Then, just three months ago, I warned you again. I told you that the
administration's budget estimate was far off target, and that you should
expect the deficit to mushroom to the $500 billion level.

That's exactly where it is today. We have the admission by the OMB of the
$455 billion deficit excluding Iraq reconstruction costs plus the admission
by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that those costs have doubled to $3.9
billion per month. Add them together, and there you have it: A $500 billion
official deficit.

But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Much like big companies jury-rigged
their pension fund gains to make it look like they had bigger profits ...
the US government manipulates Social Security surpluses to make it look
like it has bigger revenues. And much like Enron and others hid debts and
expenses in subsidaries and partnerships, the US government hides big
deficits in government-related agencies.

Last year, the total amount the government and its agencies borrowed was
$812 billion, and in the next two years, it could average over $1 trillion.
This is the real deficit. It's huge, and it's not going away.

The Stock Market: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The stock market may have some more room to rally - there's no law that
says it must respond immediately to the interest rate rise. But overall,
it's between a rock and a hard place:

* To justify its recent rise, it desperately needs to get a lot more
confirmation of an economic recovery.

* BUT ... any new evidence of a recovery will send bond markets into a
tailspin, drive long-term interest rates skyward, and doom that recovery to
a premature end.

In the weeks ahead, you may see some additional news of economic
improvements in some sectors. And you will no doubt hear many Wall Street
analysts dismiss the interest rate rise and its causes. Watch out!

Don't believe Wall Street when they tell you "the interest rate rise is of
little importance." As you've seen already, its consequences can be dramatic.

Don't believe administration officials when they tell you "the deficit is
manageable." That's hogwash - even in comparison to GDP, it is near the
highest levels in history.

Most important, don't count on Fed Chairman Greenspan's promise to keep
short-term interest rates low. As long-term interest rates go higher, they
force borrowers to get their money from medium-term markets; and as
medium-term rates are driven higher, they force borrowers into the shortest
maturities.

Slowly at first, but with gathering momentum, the demand for money cascades
down the yield curve, from long term to short term. The rates on Treasury
bills, commercial paper (short-term corporate IOUs) and other money market
instruments will drift higher. Sooner or later the Fed will have no choice
but to recognize the reality.

Mark my words: One day in the not-to-distant future, Mr. Greenspan will
shock the world with the first of a series of interest-rate hikes.

It will be Wall Street's worst nightmare. But they have no inkling it's
coming. Their heads are buried in the sand.


 

One Side of the Coin

August 1, 2003

Unemployment improving?  Yeah, right!  Here's the real story ...

Wall Street wants you to focus on today's unemployment rate,
which fell from 6.4% in June to 6.2% in July.  They say this is
proof positive the economy is healthy.

But the fact is, the Labor Department is undercounting people
who don't have jobs.

Fact:  The civilian labor force fell by 556,000 workers from
June!  In other words, the labor market is contracting.  So,
6.2% unemployed on a declining labor market could actually
mean there are more unemployed souls now than before!

Fact:  The number of "discouraged" workers -- those dropping
out from even looking for a job -- jumped to 470,000 in July.
That's up from 405,000 a year earlier ... and it's certainly NOT
a good sign.

Fact:  The number of jobs in the American economy has
declined for six months in a row!  And making matters worse,
the number of jobs lost in June jumped to 72,000 from the
previously reported 30,000.  That's more than double!
Obviously, the government is having trouble keeping up with
the hemorrhaging of jobs that's going on right now.  Moreover,
it's likely that July's job losses will be revised upward as well.

Fact:  Manufacturing jobs are just melting away, with a
whopping 71,000 disappearing in July alone.  America's
manufacturing sector is being hollowed out as production --
and jobs -- move overseas.

Fact:  The last time the economy added any significant jobs
was back in January -- and that gain has been swamped by
wave after wave of job elimination ever since.

Fact:  Unemployment is going to get worse, not better.  Job
losses just announced that aren't even in the unemployment
rate yet include ...

* Pillowtex Corporation is closing its doors, throwing
6,450 workers out of work.

* Verizon -- America's largest phone company -- is chopping
up to ANOTHER 5,000 jobs this year.  This comes on top of
the 15,000 pink slips that Verizon has handed out in the last
year.

* May Department Stores says it will close 32 Lord & Taylor
stores in 15 states, giving 3,700 workers the ax.  This is in
addition to the 1,500 workers May cut last month.

* Cigna Corp is giving 3,200 employees the boot.  The health
insurer is making the job cuts by the end of the year as part of
a restructuring.

And that's just a few of the companies that are laying off
workers right now, and are expecting to lay off more in the
weeks ahead.  None of this is good news for the economy --
or the markets!

August is a bear month for stocks!

Looking ahead, the market is now sailing into the teeth of
August storms.  The Stock Trader's Almanac shows that
August is the third worst month for the Nasdaq over the last
15 years AND the absolute worst month for both the Dow and
the S&P 500.  August is one of the worst months for the
market, period!

Investors are already battening down the hatches.  TrimTabs
reports that US equity funds saw inflows of $1.2 billion in the
week ending July 30.  That's less than half the $3.2 billion
that flowed into US equity funds in the previous week.

Heck, with a historically stormy August dead ahead, no one
can blame investors for booking profits and jumping ship.  And
with no real fundamental support for today's sky-high stock
prices, it won't take much for that retreat to turn into a rout.

We're watching the markets closely, and we'll continue to play
both sides -- both the temporary rallies and the big sell-off we
believe is coming.  So, stay alert for more updates and recos!

Archives

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